Pilar Bengoechea

A Useful Tool to Forecast the Euro-area Business Cycle Phases

Based on a novel extension of existing multivariate Markov-switching models, we provide the reader with a useful tool to analyze current business conditions and to make predictions about the future state of the Euro-area economy in real time. Apart from the Industrial Production Index, we find that the European Commission Industrial Confidence Indicator, that is issued with no delay, is very useful to construct the real-time predictions.

Abbonamento a RSS - Pilar Bengoechea