Andrea Brasili

L’Italia e l’Emilia-Romagna al tempo della “crisi”: un’analisi dell’attività economica, import-export e mercato del lavoro

Ci troviamo in un contesto economico internazionale in fortissimo movimento. Negli ultimi due anni l’economia internazionale ha assistito a quella che molti commentatori, a torto o ragione, hanno definito come “la più grande crisi economica mondiale della storia”. La crisi finanziaria che ha interessato prima gli Stati Uniti ha avuto poi forti ripercussioni su tutta l’economia mondiale anche per il 2009, come evidenziato dalle stime effettuate dai principali istituti internazionali (-1,1% il FMI, -2,7% l’OCSE).

An Indicator of the Regional Cycle in Italy

Recently regional economics and the analysis of business cycle at a more disaggregated than the national level, have attracted increasingly more attention. The aim of this paper is the construction of a high frequency and updated indicator of economic activity in each of the 20 Italian regions, just like the ones that are calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Crone et al. 2004). The proposed indicators for Italian regions are based on a wide set of variables, none of which could be considered as a reference series in describing business cycle or its turning points.

Using Factors Models to Construct New Indicators of the Economic Activity in Austria, Germany and Italy

In our work, factor estimation using principal component analysis is used to obtain consistent estimates of monthly economic activity indices for Italy, Austria and Germany. The production of these indices gives an answer to the need of representing and communicating, in a very concise but precise way, where the economic cycle stands at the most up-to-date in time. An EM algorithm is used to estimate missing observations at each time, by using the factors of the balanced panel in order to extract factors from an unbalanced panel.

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